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Findings F344 Physics, Computing and mathematics, Method and statistics found 2026-10-31

No cubic pattern in public Auger cosmic-ray directions, at sensitivity that sees only large ones

If space were a fine cubic grid, the highest-energy cosmic rays might arrive in a pattern aligned with its axes. In the public Pierre Auger sample we find no such pattern at any of five energy cuts, and our planted tests show the search could only have seen a strong one.

Tier
D, honest null
Outcome
honest null
Rung
hypothesis
Verdicts
3 passed, 0 failed
Standing
narrowed in part: sensitivity, F422
Corrections
1, latest 2026-10-31
Version
v2, 2026-11-09
Redo it
Reproduce

Download PDF 3.6 MB BuildTeX source F344.bld

What this means for a reader

The public share of the Auger data is small enough that only a large cubic imprint on the arrival directions would have shown up. So the result rules out a strong pattern and says nothing about a subtle one. Anyone citing public cosmic-ray data for or against a grid-like universe should quote the planted sensitivity beside the p value, and the full Auger dataset would do much better than the public share.

Objection

Only the public 10 percent of events was available, which is the main reason the sensitivity is low.

What would change the call. Our publication register records no condition that would raise or overturn this call.

From the paper's first stated limitation; our register records no separate objection.

Abstract

If space were a fine cubic grid, the highest-energy cosmic rays could arrive in a pattern aligned with its axes, a signature Beane, Davoudi and Savage proposed in 2012. We searched the public Pierre Auger Observatory data for such a pattern with a method fixed in advance. The data are the 25,086 main-array events in the public 10 percent sample and the catalogue of the highest-energy events, cut at 8, 16, 32, 40 and 78 EeV. For each cut we fitted a cube-symmetric pattern over 400 orientations and compared the best fit with skies whose right ascensions were scrambled, which keeps the detector's exposure. No cut shows a cubic pattern: raw p values run from 0.19 to 0.85, and all five read 0.85 after the Benjamini-Hochberg correction. The search could only have seen a strong pattern: at 8 EeV it reaches power 0.9 at a planted strength of 0.2, and at 32 EeV it reaches power 0.97 only at strength 1.0, where the sky along the cube axes is twice the average. The highest-energy event, 166 EeV, bounds the lattice spacing below 3.7e-27 m, an inverse spacing of 5.3e10 GeV, which is 0.53 of the 1e11 GeV bound of Beane and colleagues. This is a null whose value lies in stating how weak it is.

c1 observed, evidence for claim 1
The numbers in claim 1
0.19; 0.85 matches the result file, 2026-11-09
Chart 1
How the search looks for a cube in the sky, and how it was checked.
Chart 2
Is there a cubic pattern at any energy cut?
Basis
observed: measured in this study, with a result file
c2 observed, evidence for claim 2
The numbers in claim 2
8; 0.9; 0.2; 32; 0.97; 1.0 matches the result file, 2026-11-09
Chart 1
How the search looks for a cube in the sky, and how it was checked.
Chart 4
How strong a planted cubic pattern has to be before the search finds it.
Basis
observed: measured in this study, with a result file
c3 observed, evidence for claim 3
The numbers in claim 3
166; 3.7e-27; 5.3e10; 0.53; 1e11 matches the result file, 2026-11-09
Chart 5
The bound on a lattice spacing from the highest-energy event, against the published one.
Basis
observed: measured in this study, with a result file

Introduction

Lattice calculations in particle physics put space and time on a grid. Beane, Davoudi and Savage [2] asked what an observer inside such a calculation could detect if the universe itself were computed on a grid with some lattice spacingDefinition: lattice spacing lattice field theory The distance between neighbouring points of a grid on which space is modelled. On a grid, waves shorter than about twice the spacing cannot exist and the speed of a wave depends on its direction. Excludes the Planck length, which is a scale built from constants and not a measured grid. full definition. Their abstract reports that the most stringent bound on the inverse spacing, about 1e11 GeV, comes from the high-energy end of the cosmic-ray spectrum, and their published account predicts that the highest-energy cosmic rays would show the cube symmetry of the grid in their arrival directions.

The particles that could carry that signature are the ultra-high-energy cosmic rayDefinition: ultra-high-energy cosmic ray astroparticle physics A charged particle from space, a proton or heavier nucleus, arriving with an energy above about 1e18 electronvolts. It is recorded through the shower of secondary particles it makes in the atmosphere. Excludes photons and neutrinos, and the far more common cosmic rays of lower energy. full definitions, with energies of many EeVDefinition: EeV physics (units) An exaelectronvolt, 1e18 electronvolts, or 1e9 GeV, carried by a single particle. Excludes the total energy of the shower in a detector, which is spread over many secondary particles. full definition. The Pierre Auger Observatory records them with an array of ground detectors. The Auger Collaboration reported in 2017 a large-scale anisotropy above 8 EeV, a dipole of about 6.5 percent amplitude in 3e4 events, which it reads as evidence that these particles come from outside our galaxy [3]. Since 2021 the collaboration has published 10 percent of its cosmic-ray events, with a catalogue of the highest-energy events added in 2023 [1].

We asked whether the public arrival directions carry a cubic pattern, and what the most energetic event says about the spacing. The decision it informed was how to describe public cosmic-ray data in any work of ours on discretised space: as evidence, or as a weak test. Our searches found the proposal above and the Auger anisotropy results and no published cubic search on the open data; that is what the searches returned, and it does not show that none exists.

A white-on-black 1889 engraving with a plan view of the Sun and inner planets on a grid of radial lines and rings above an edge view of swirling streams
Figure 1. Robert P. Traxler, Fig. II, "A sectional side and edge view of the Sun with Mercury Venus Earth and Mars", from The Principles of Mechanics as Applied to the Solar System (San Francisco, 1889) [5]. Above, the inner planets on a grid of radial force lines and rings with a marked line of attraction; below, the Sun's equatorial plane drawn as swirling streams. Traxler drew his plates to argue for a repelling force from the Sun, his own theory in 1889, which physics did not adopt. The plate draws a grid laid over space, the kind of structure this test looks for. Public domain; scan from the Internet Archive, University of California Libraries.

Preregistration and design

The preregistrationDefinition: preregistration research method (metascience) A dated written plan for a study, fixed and hash-locked before any result is seen: the question, the data, the statistic, the controls, the forecasts and the kill conditions. Excludes a plan revised after looking at the outcome, and a protocol written only for the record after the run. full definition and the forecast file were written and hash-locked on 31 October 2026, before the run. They name the baseline (an isotropic sky at the data's declinations), the planted answer (a cubic pattern at random orientation), the controlDefinition: control statistics and experimental design A version of the data with the structure under test removed (for example shuffled or pooled), scored the same way as the real data, so the real score has something to beat. Excludes a comparison with a different dataset or with a published number. full definition (right-ascension scrambles), the outlier checks (the top 3 events and the region around Centaurus A, with and without), the assumption changed (the energy cut and the Centaurus A exclusion), and the kill condition.

The kill conditionDefinition: kill condition research method (our usage, after Popper's falsification) A rule written in the preregistration that, when met, decides against the claim with no room for judgement after the run. Excludes reasons found after the run for setting a result aside. full definition, fixed in advance: if the cubic search gives a corrected p below 0.01, the lattice reading must still survive the Centaurus A exclusion and a second energy cut, or it dies. Each forecast and condition became a rule set whose pass or fail is a verdictDefinition: verdict research method (our usage) The pass or fail of one preregistered rule set against the run's numbers, read off by code. Excludes an interpretation written after reading the numbers. full definition read off by code.

Data and provenance

The data are the Pierre Auger Observatory Open Data release of 2024 [1], Zenodo record 10488964, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0, fetched on 31 October 2026. We read the event summaries of the main surface array, vertical and inclined showers together with duplicates removed, which gave 25,086 events with direction and energy. This public sample is 10 percent of the recorded events. We also read the catalogue of the highest-energy surface-array events, 109 events with a top energy of 166 EeV. We report statistics only.

The cuts at 8, 16 and 32 EeV use the event summaries, and the cuts at 40 and 78 EeV use the catalogue. Table 1 gives the count at each cut.

Methods

The pattern

For an arrival direction written as a unit vector with components x, y, z, the cubic harmonicDefinition: cubic harmonic mathematics (spherical harmonics) and crystallography The simplest pattern on a sphere with the symmetry of a cube: here x^4 + y^4 + z^4 minus its average, largest along the six cube axes and smallest along the eight diagonals. Excludes a dipole, a single hot spot, or any pattern that a rotation of the cube by a right angle would change. full definition is

C=x4+y4+z4−0.6(1)

The constant 0.6 is its average over the sphere, so C averages to zero on an isotropic sky. It is largest, 0.4, along the six axes of the cube and smallest along the eight diagonals. A grid in space need not line up with our coordinates, so the pattern was rotated through 400 random orientations R.

The statistic

A ground array does not watch the whole sky evenly: its exposureDefinition: exposure astroparticle physics How much of each part of the sky a detector watched over time. A ground array sees some declinations far more than others, so an isotropic sky still looks uneven in its data. Excludes the number of events, which is exposure times the true flux. full definition depends strongly on declination. The baseline sky was therefore built from 60,000 directions with uniform right ascension and declinations drawn from the data. For orientation R, let μR and sR be the mean and standard deviation of C on this baseline, and mR its mean over the N real events. The standardised excess is

ZR=|mR−μR|sR/N(2)

and the statistic T is the largest ZR over the 400 orientations. For cuts with 500 events or fewer, the baseline declinations were drawn from the 8 EeV events.

The null and the correction

Each p value comes from a right-ascension scrambleDefinition: right-ascension scramble astroparticle physics (anisotropy searches) A control sky made by keeping each event's declination and giving it a random right ascension. The Earth's rotation makes a ground array's exposure nearly even in right ascension, so the scramble keeps the exposure and removes any pattern. Excludes a fully random sky, which would ignore the detector's exposure. full definition: each event keeps its declination and gets a random right ascension, which keeps the exposure and removes any pattern. The statistic was recomputed on 300 scrambled skies, and

p=k+1n+1(3)

with k the number of scrambles at or above the real T and n the number of scrambles. The five p values were corrected with the Benjamini-Hochberg correctionDefinition: Benjamini-Hochberg correction statistics (multiple testing) A rule that raises a set of p values to control the expected share of false discoveries among the tests called significant. The smallest raw p is multiplied by the number of tests and larger ones by less. Excludes an uncorrected p value read on its own when several tests were run. full definition [4]: with the raw values sorted so that pi is the ith smallest of M = 5,

qi=Mpii(4)

and each corrected value is the smallest qj at its own rank or above.

Planted patterns

A planted sky keeps the real events' declinations and draws right ascensions from a density proportional to

1+ϵC0.4(5)

at one random orientation, so that the sky along the cube axes is 1+ϵ times the average. The detection powerDefinition: detection power statistics The share of planted skies, each with a pattern of known strength, in which the search finds the pattern at its preregistered threshold. Excludes the chance that a pattern exists in the real sky. full definition at strength ϵ is the share of planted skies whose statistic exceeds the 95th percentile of scrambled skies. At 32 EeV the threshold came from 200 scrambles and each strength had 30 planted skies; at 8 EeV, 60 scrambles and 10 planted skies.

The kinematic reading

On a grid of spacing a, a particle cannot have a wavelength much shorter than the grid. In the simple picture used here, a particle of energy Etop could not propagate unless

a<πQEtop(6)

where Q = 1.973e-16 GeV m is the reduced Planck constant times the speed of light. The inverse spacing in energy units is Etop/π.

Controls and planted checks

The right-ascension scramble is the null for every p value. As a separate control at 32 EeV, 200 scrambled skies gave a mean statistic of 2.32 and a 95th percentile of 3.27; the real statistic, 1.69, sat well inside them (p value from drawsDefinition: p value (from draws) statistics The share of control draws scoring at or above the real score, with one added to the count and to the number of draws, so it is never zero. Excludes a p value from a textbook formula that assumes a distribution. full definition 0.87).

Diagram 1. How the search looks for a cube in the sky, and how it was checked. Scrambled skies set the chance level, planted cubic skies measure what the search can see, and the real sky shows no pattern at any of 5 energy cuts (smallest corrected p 0.85).
  1. data25,086 cosmic-ray eventsPublic Pierre Auger release. Cut at 8, 16, 32, 40, 78 EeV (1 EeV is 10 to the 18 electronvolts).
  2. measurementCubic statistic TMeasures how much the arrival directions bunch along the axes of a cube, over every orientation of the cube. At 32 EeV, T is 1.69.
  3. controlControl: scrambled skiesRight ascension shuffled, declination kept. At 32 EeV, 200 draws gave mean 2.32 and 95th percentile 3.27.
  4. planted checkPlanted: a cubic skyEvents drawn with a known cubic strength. At strength 1.0 and 32 EeV the search finds it in 0.97 of trials.
  5. rule set in advanceRule: corrected p below 0.01A pattern counts only if the smallest p value, corrected over the five cuts by Benjamini-Hochberg (a correction for running several tests), is below the bar.
  6. no cubic patternSmallest corrected p 0.85The null holds only for strong patterns: the planted check shows the search misses weak ones at 32 EeV.
n
25,086 public events read; 3,111 above 8 EeV down to 101 above 78 EeV
Supports
claim 1, claim 2

Read from result.json, run 20261031T211927Z. SHA-256 of the run's file c057a3088f4ba56f1e9e24198ba11450f2a361ee56996a5e6f285a0a3c80d9a4 and of the published copy e0305fdf3d92b04de8acd905624c37a064b446c8b9a8da8049d6ec938744a3e2. In the copy, file paths are cut to the file name and the layout (indentation, line endings) may differ; every value is the same.

The planted checkDefinition: planted check research method; called a positive control in experimental science Data built so that the right answer is known, run through the same analysis before the real data, to show that the analysis can see the effect when it is there. Excludes any check made on the real data, which cannot show what the analysis misses. full definition measured the search's power at each strength. Figure 3 and Table 2 give the result. The planted powers are coarse: each is a share of 30 or of 10 trials.

The outlier checks removed the 28 events at 32 EeV within 27 degrees of Centaurus A, and separately the 3 highest-energy events, and recomputed the p value with 200 scrambles each.

Results

No cut shows a cubic pattern: raw p values run from 0.19 to 0.85, and all five read 0.85 after the Benjamini-Hochberg correction. Table 1 and Figure 2 give the values.

Chart 2. Is there a cubic pattern at any energy cut? No: raw p values run from 0.19 to 0.85, and all five read 0.85 after correction, far above the bar of 0.01.
Above 8 EeV
3,111 events; raw 0.19; corrected 0.85
Above 16 EeV
793 events; raw 0.68; corrected 0.85
Above 32 EeV
155 events; raw 0.85; corrected 0.85
Above 40 EeV
109 events; raw 0.55; corrected 0.85
Above 78 EeV
101 events; raw 0.61; corrected 0.85

p value (a pattern needs less than 0.01)

  • raw p
  • p after Benjamini-Hochberg correction over the five cuts
  • bar set in advance, 0.01
n
3,111 events above 8 EeV; 793 events above 16 EeV; 155 events above 32 EeV; 109 events above 40 EeV; 101 events above 78 EeV
Units
p value (the share of scrambled skies with a statistic at least as large as the real one); a pattern needs a value below the bar
Interval
A p value is itself a share of scrambled skies. The result file holds one per cut.
Baseline or control
Scrambled skies: right ascension shuffled, declination kept
Set in advance
Smallest corrected p below 0.01 would count as a pattern; not met (0.85)
Planted check
Held: power 0.97 at planted strength 1.0 and 32 EeV, against a bar of 0.9
Ruled out
A strong cubic pattern only. At 32 EeV the search reaches power 0.9 near planted strength 1.0; weaker patterns are not ruled out there.
Supports
claim 1
Data behind chart 2 5 rows
Energy cutEventsStatistic TRaw pCorrected p
8 EeV3,1112.740.190.85
16 EeV7931.910.680.85
32 EeV1551.690.850.85
40 EeV1092.800.550.85
78 EeV1012.790.610.85

Read from result.json, run 20261031T211927Z. SHA-256 of the run's file c057a3088f4ba56f1e9e24198ba11450f2a361ee56996a5e6f285a0a3c80d9a4 and of the published copy e0305fdf3d92b04de8acd905624c37a064b446c8b9a8da8049d6ec938744a3e2. In the copy, file paths are cut to the file name and the layout (indentation, line endings) may differ; every value is the same.

Removing the 28 events near Centaurus A or the 3 highest-energy events leaves no pattern at 32 EeV: p 0.38 and 0.71.

c4 observed, evidence for claim 4
The numbers in claim 4
28; 3; 32; 0.38; 0.71 matches the result file, 2026-11-09
Chart 3
Does a handful of events hide a pattern at 32 EeV?
Basis
observed: measured in this study, with a result file
Chart 3. Does a handful of events hide a pattern at 32 EeV? No: without the 28 events near Centaurus A the p value is 0.38, and without the 3 highest-energy events it is 0.71, both far above 0.01.
All events above 32 EeV
p 0.85
Without the 28 events near Centaurus A
p 0.38
Without the 3 highest-energy events
p 0.71

raw p value at 32 EeV

  • bar set in advance, 0.01
n
155 events above 32 EeV before removal
Units
raw p value at the 32 EeV cut; a pattern needs a value below the bar
Interval
The result file holds one p value per check.
Baseline or control
All events above 32 EeV: p 0.85
Set in advance
The same bar of 0.01
Supports
claim 4
Data behind chart 3 3 rows
Events usedRaw p
All events above 32 EeV0.85
Without the 28 events near Centaurus A0.38
Without the 3 highest-energy events0.71

Read from result.json, run 20261031T211927Z. SHA-256 of the run's file c057a3088f4ba56f1e9e24198ba11450f2a361ee56996a5e6f285a0a3c80d9a4 and of the published copy e0305fdf3d92b04de8acd905624c37a064b446c8b9a8da8049d6ec938744a3e2. In the copy, file paths are cut to the file name and the layout (indentation, line endings) may differ; every value is the same.

The search could only have seen a strong pattern: at 8 EeV it reaches power 0.9 at a planted strength of 0.2, and at 32 EeV it reaches power 0.97 only at strength 1.0, where the sky along the cube axes is twice the average.

Chart 4. How strong a planted cubic pattern has to be before the search finds it. With 3,111 events at 8 EeV the search reaches power 0.9 at strength 0.2; with 155 events at 32 EeV it reaches 0.97 only at strength 1.0, where the sky along the cube axes is twice the average.

power (share of planted skies found)

8 EeV, planted strength 0.05: power 0.108 EeV, planted strength 0.1: power 0.308 EeV, planted strength 0.2: power 0.9032 EeV, planted strength 0.1: power 0.0332 EeV, planted strength 0.2: power 0.2032 EeV, planted strength 0.3: power 0.2732 EeV, planted strength 0.5: power 0.4032 EeV, planted strength 0.8: power 0.8032 EeV, planted strength 1.0: power 0.97

planted strength (1 is twice the average flux along the cube axes)

  • 8 EeV cut
  • 32 EeV cut
  • power 0.9
n
3,111 events per planted sky at 8 EeV, 155 at 32 EeV
Units
power (the share of planted skies in which the search found the pattern, 0 to 1; higher is a more sensitive search) against planted strength (0 is no pattern, 1 is twice the average flux along the cube axes)
Interval
Each power is one share of a small number of planted skies, so the curves are coarse. The result file holds no interval.
Set in advance
Power of at least 0.9 at strength 1.0 and 32 EeV: held, 0.97
Planted check
This chart is the planted check
Supports
claim 2
Data behind chart 4 7 rows
Planted strengthPower at 32 EeVPower at 8 EeV
0.05not run0.10
0.10.030.30
0.20.200.90
0.30.27not run
0.50.40not run
0.80.80not run
1.00.97not run

Read from result.json, run 20261031T211927Z. SHA-256 of the run's file c057a3088f4ba56f1e9e24198ba11450f2a361ee56996a5e6f285a0a3c80d9a4 and of the published copy e0305fdf3d92b04de8acd905624c37a064b446c8b9a8da8049d6ec938744a3e2. In the copy, file paths are cut to the file name and the layout (indentation, line endings) may differ; every value is the same.

The highest-energy event, 166 EeV, bounds the lattice spacing below 3.7e-27 m, an inverse spacing of 5.3e10 GeV, which is 0.53 of the 1e11 GeV bound of Beane and colleagues. The 1e11 GeV figure was entered from memory before the run; the abstract of Beane and colleagues [2], read for this paper, gives the same value.

Chart 5. The bound on a lattice spacing from the highest-energy event, against the published one. The 166 EeV event bounds the spacing below 3.7e−27 m, an inverse spacing of 5.3e10 GeV, which is 0.53 of the 1.0e11 GeV bound of Beane and colleagues.
This study
5.3e10 GeV
Beane and colleagues
1.0e11 GeV

inverse lattice spacing, GeV (larger is tighter), log scale

  • this study, from the highest-energy event
  • Beane and colleagues
  • within a factor of 3 of the published bound
n
one event, the highest energy in the catalogue of 109 events
Units
inverse lattice spacing in GeV, log scale; a larger value is a finer lattice and a tighter bound
Interval
The bound is one number computed from one event's energy, with no interval in the result file.
Baseline or control
Published bound of Beane and colleagues: 1.0e11 GeV
Set in advance
Ratio to the published bound between 0.33 and 3, set in advance: held, 0.53
Supports
claim 3
Data behind chart 5 5 rows
QuantityValue
Highest event energy166 EeV
Spacing bound3.7e−27 m
Inverse spacing, this study5.3e10 GeV
Inverse spacing, Beane and colleagues1.0e11 GeV
Ratio0.528

Read from result.json, run 20261031T211927Z. SHA-256 of the run's file c057a3088f4ba56f1e9e24198ba11450f2a361ee56996a5e6f285a0a3c80d9a4 and of the published copy e0305fdf3d92b04de8acd905624c37a064b446c8b9a8da8049d6ec938744a3e2. In the copy, file paths are cut to the file name and the layout (indentation, line endings) may differ; every value is the same.

The study also ran a toy model of waves on a cubic grid, to check the dispersion a lattice would cause. Along an axis, the phase speed falls short of the continuum value by (ka)2/24, with k the wavenumber, within 0.8 percent for ka up to 0.8. The group speed falls short by (ka)2/8, within 1.3 percent; our forecast had given it the phase speed's coefficient, and that forecast missed. Along a diagonal, waves run faster than along an axis by (ka)2/48, within 1.2 percent, and the model sets the highest energy along a diagonal at 3, 1.73, times that along an axis, from the grid's geometry. This direction dependence is what would imprint a cube on arrival directions.

Table 3 sets the forecasts written before the run against the outcomes.

The event forecast was made from memory of the full dataset; the public release holds a tenth of it.

Discussion

The search found nothing, and the planted skies say how little that means. At 32 EeV, the highest cut with event-level data, only 155 events are public, and the search needs a pattern that doubles the flux along the cube axes before it sees one reliably. At 8 EeV the sample is twenty times larger and the threshold falls to a 20 percent modulation, but at that energy the particles are bent strongly by galactic magnetic fields, which would smear a pattern made at the source.

For scale, the dipole the Auger Collaboration measured above 8 EeV with its full data has an amplitude of about 6.5 percent [3]. A cubic pattern of that size would be far below what our search can see in the public share. The kinematic reading lands within a factor of 2 of the published bound because both rest on the same top energy and the same simple argument; it adds a check of arithmetic and no new information.

The result therefore excludes a large cubic imprint on the public arrival directions and nothing smaller. The same method on the full Auger data would set a stronger limit.

Limitations

  • Only the public 10 percent of events was available, which is the main reason the sensitivity is low.
  • Cosmic rays at these energies are bent by galactic and intergalactic magnetic fields, and we did not model that; a lattice pattern at the source could be smeared before arrival.
  • Only a cubic pattern was tested. Other grid symmetries and other signatures of a lattice were not.
  • The scramble also removes the known dipole from the null skies. With partial sky coverage a dipole is not exactly independent of a cubic pattern, so a dipole could raise the statistic slightly; we did not test this.
  • The planted powers rest on 30 or 10 trials per strength and are coarse.
  • The 1e11 GeV bound was entered from memory and agrees with the abstract read for this paper; the full paper was not read.
  • Scoring was by our own code and was not blind.

Evidence

Honest null. Only strong cubic patterns are ruled out: power 0.9 at planted strength 0.2 at 8 EeV, and at 32 EeV only at strength 1.0, where the sky along the cube axes is twice the average.

Figures

These are the paper's own figures, numbered as in the PDF, and each "Figure" reference in the text points here. The charts on this page redraw the same results from the result files and carry their own numbers.

Five diamonds for raw p values between 0.19 and 0.85 and five bars at 0.85 for the corrected values, all far above 0.01
Figure 2. Raw and corrected p values at each energy cut, with the number of events. The preregistered bar of 0.01 is the dotted line. Drawn from the run's result file.
Two rising curves of detection power, the 8 EeV curve reaching 0.9 at strength 0.2 and the 32 EeV curve reaching 0.97 at strength 1.0
Figure 3. Detection power against planted strength at the 8 and 32 EeV cuts. Drawn from the run's result file.

Tables

Table 1. The cubic search at each energy cut. Raw p from 300 scrambles; corrected p by Benjamini-Hochberg over the five cuts.
CutEventsStatistic TRaw pCorrected p
8 EeV3,1112.740.190.85
16 EeV7931.910.680.85
32 EeV1551.690.850.85
40 EeV1092.800.550.85
78 EeV1012.790.610.85
Table 2. Detection power against planted strength. Each power is a share of 30 planted skies at 32 EeV and of 10 at 8 EeV.
Planted strengthPower at 32 EeVPower at 8 EeV
0.05not run0.10
0.10.030.30
0.20.200.90
0.30.27not run
0.50.40not run
0.80.80not run
1.00.97not run
Table 3. Forecasts fixed before the run against what it gave.
QuantityForecastOutcome
Events above 32 EeVabout 2,600155
Cubic search, no patternp above 0.05, probability 0.9all raw p 0.19 or above
Strength for power 0.9about 0.12, band 0.05 to 0.30.2 at 8 EeV; about 1.0 at 32 EeV
Kinematic reading against 1e11 GeVwithin a factor of 30.53
Group speed on axisdeficit (ka)2/24 within 1 percentdeficit (ka)2/8
Axis minus diagonal(ka)2/48 within 5 percentwithin 1.2 percent
Highest energy, diagonal over axissquare root of 31.73, set by the model

Appendix A. The preregistered verdicts

Each verdict is a set of rules written before the run. A verdict passes only when every rule holds. Values are read from the run's result file.

Table 4. Preregistered verdicts and the rules that decided each one.
VerdictDeciding ruleValueHolds
Cubic pattern absentsmallest corrected p above 0.010.85yes
Planted powerpower at strength 1.0, 32 EeV, at least 0.90.97yes
Kinematic readingratio to 1e11 GeV between 0.33 and 30.53yes

What lowers it

  • scoring Scored by code and by the agent that ran it; self-graded. from our publication register, on who scored it
  • blinding Not blind, as the paper's limitations state. from the paper's Limitations
  • imprecision Only strong cubic patterns are ruled out: power 0.9 at planted strength 0.2 at 8 EeV, and at 32 EeV only at strength 1.0, where the sky along the cube axes is twice the average. from the bound stated under Evidence
  • depth of reading The cited literature was read at the level of abstracts, publisher pages and search summaries; full texts were not read. from the Verified section

What holds it up

  • preregistration Preregistered and hash-locked before the run (sha256 1b0153b4). from the Reproduce section

Where the claim stands

  1. lead
  2. hypothesis
  3. thesis
  4. conjecture
  5. theorem
  6. law candidate
  7. killed

A preregistration with pass-or-fail rules is on file, which this rung needs. The next rung needs a named rival reading beaten by a decisive observation, and none is on file. Tier D: Null with stated power.

Trail

Versions

  1. v2 2026-11-09, paper version 1.0, first published PDF sha256 9e8df4ecb6223e12
  2. v1 2026-10-31, entered in the findings ledger

Corrections

  1. 2026-10-31 scope found by a review of our findings ledger

    A review of our ledger noted that the public 10 percent of the data gives 155 events at 32 EeV and low power, with planted power needing strength 1.0 there. now The claim was narrowed to a large pattern, as here.

Standing, and the ledger entries it rests on

  1. 2026-10-31 narrowed in part F422

    Set by hand from findings ledger entry F422, dated 2026-10-31: sensitivity. Rests on findings ledger, F422 correction pass.

Each correction is a dated note; the findings ledger is never rewritten, and a note governs where it differs.

Ledger and version dates up to publication are local dates in US Pacific time. Clock times in the text are UTC, seven or eight hours ahead, so a lock or a run stamped just after midnight UTC belongs to the previous local day. Corrections from 14 November 2026 on are dated in UTC.

References

  1. Pierre Auger Collaboration. Auger Open Data release 2024. Zenodo record 10488964. doi:10.5281/zenodo.10488964. Licence CC BY-SA 4.0. Described in: Pierre Auger Collaboration (2024). The Pierre Auger Observatory open data. The European Physical Journal C. doi:10.1140/epjc/s10052-024-13560-5. arXiv:2309.16294 run here Licence: as stated in the paper's data section used in Introduction, Data and provenance
  2. Beane, S. R., Davoudi, Z. and Savage, M. J. (2014). Constraints on the universe as a numerical simulation. The European Physical Journal A. doi:10.1140/epja/i2014-14148-0. arXiv:1210.1847 abstract or summary, 2026-11-09: abstracts, publisher pages and search summaries; full text not read used in Introduction, Results
  3. Pierre Auger Collaboration (2017). Observation of a large-scale anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above 8 x 10^18 eV. Science 357, 1266-1270. doi:10.1126/science.aan4338. arXiv:1709.07321 abstract or summary, 2026-11-09: abstracts, publisher pages and search summaries; full text not read used in Introduction, Discussion
  4. Benjamini, Y. and Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 57, 289-300. abstract or summary, 2026-11-09: abstracts, publisher pages and search summaries; full text not read used in Methods
  5. Traxler, R. P. (1889). The Principles of Mechanics as Applied to the Solar System. San Francisco: C. A. Murdock and Co. Internet Archive item principlesofmech00traxiala. read in full: the scan, read in full on the Internet Archive used in Introduction

Cited by later findings

  • F422 narrowed in part, sensitivity, 2026-10-31 (record findings ledger, F422 correction pass). A later review of our ledger recorded one error: the public 10 percent sample has low power, so the claim covers large patterns only.

Reproduce

Data

Preregistration

sha256 1b0153b42a6fffc2789b98f6f2bd9774da4c0da48bda7e22e51266e9bd5f0f29
plan 6785b5da63d8a3597424d3b4d72015ad4bf66979959f281bb55fda7df057548b

Steps

  1. Data: the Pierre Auger Observatory Open Data release 2024, Zenodo record 10488964 (CC BY-SA 4.0): the surface-array event summaries and the highest-energy catalogue.
  2. Cut at 8, 16 and 32 EeV in the summaries and at 40 and 78 EeV in the catalogue.
  3. For each cut, compute eq. 2 over 400 random orientations of eq. 1 against an exposure-matched baseline, keep the largest, and compute eq. 3 from 300 right-ascension scrambles. Correct with eq. 4.
  4. Plant eq. 5 at a random orientation into skies with the real declinations to measure power. Remove the events near Centaurus A and the top 3 events and recompute.
  5. Apply eq. 6 to the top energy.
  6. Preregistration SHA-256: 1b0153b42a6fffc2789b98f6f2bd9774da4c0da48bda7e22e51266e9bd5f0f29. Plan SHA-256: 6785b5da63d8a3597424d3b4d72015ad4bf66979959f281bb55fda7df057548b. Run 20261031T211927Z.

Cost. The analysis took about 138 s and the scramble control about 3 s on one desktop CPU. The study was not re-run for this paper.

Downloads

The PDF is typeset by BuildTeX from F344.bld, which is written from the same source as this page. The receipt records the source's SHA-256 and the PDF's (9e8df4ecb622), so anyone can rebuild it and compare. The copy here has its hidden author field blanked, as the site does for every file it publishes; blank the same field in a rebuild before comparing. The name stays on the first page.

Verified

Verified on 2026-11-09. On 9 November 2026 the 25,086 events read, the catalogue count and top energy, the counts, statistics and raw p values at each cut, the corrected value of 0.85, the Centaurus A and top-3 p values with the 28 events removed, every planted power and the 32 EeV threshold, the scramble control's mean, percentile and p, the spacing bound, the inverse spacing and the 0.53 ratio, the lattice dispersion errors and the three verdicts were re-read from the run's result file. They match the findings ledgerDefinition: findings ledger our records The append-only, dated list of every result we have recorded, numbered F1, F2 and on. Corrections are added as new dated lines and old entries are never rewritten. Excludes a curated list of successes. full definition. The data source and licence were read from the download's source record. The preregistration's SHA-256 matches the hash recorded in the result file and in the lock file. Both figures were drawn by a script that reads only that result file.

Not checked. The study was not re-run for this paper. The literature was found by searches run on 9 November 2026 and read at the level of abstracts, publisher pages and search summaries; the full texts were not read. The Benjamini and Hochberg paper is cited for the method only and was not searched or read for this paper.

Terms on this page

Each term is defined where it is first used on this page. Each name below opens its entry in the findings glossary, which lists every page that uses it.

To report an error, name the finding, the claim number and the source on the Work page, which gives the address. Accepted corrections join the Trail with their date.