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     0.048307812616341816,
     0.05896841869510412,
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     0.07203026361913503,
     0.07759909455791926,
     0.08498117571849723,
     0.095319839907926,
     0.10582768184269357,
     0.11525784760401346,
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   "skip": {
    "n_team": 3248,
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    "b_team_ci95": [
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    "b_ind_ci95": [
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    "b_team_cond4_only": 0.15423660289641195,
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    "abs_diff_skip": 0.013378218137347353,
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   },
   "gate": {
    "n_team": 224357,
    "n_ind": 186094,
    "team": {
     "self": 0.2316957267111234,
     "prob": 0.14792916356110916,
     "both": 0.14460648351218428,
     "random": 0.2512242742593278,
     "d_prob_minus_both": 0.0033226800489248864,
     "self_gain_over_random": 0.019528547548204406,
     "prob_gain_over_random": 0.10329511069821865
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    "ind": {
     "self": 0.29744505995503995,
     "prob": 0.2030289469803892,
     "both": 0.20222375129513834,
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     "self_gain_over_random": 0.011405295521224712,
     "prob_gain_over_random": 0.10582140849587546
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    "diff_gate": 0.002517484363674022,
    "abs_diff_gate": 0.002517484363674022
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 },
 "controls": {
  "C1a": {
   "n": 1000,
   "usable": true,
   "mean": -0.0002802169745516105,
   "q95": 0.017508070258771012,
   "q05": -0.017285681124227684,
   "p_ge": 0.000999000999000999,
   "compare": "analysis.skip.cross.b_first",
   "description": "skip permuted within (year, forecast-count ventile); null of b_first"
  },
  "C1t": {
   "n": 1000,
   "usable": true,
   "mean": -0.00017833060134740583,
   "q95": 0.01795179152996555,
   "q05": -0.0169533017510426,
   "p_ge": 0.000999000999000999,
   "compare": "analysis.skip.cross.b_first_t",
   "description": "same on the time-matched table; null of b_first_t"
  },
  "C1w": {
   "n": 1000,
   "usable": true,
   "mean": -0.0011571731289205486,
   "q95": 0.04141587378021958,
   "q05": -0.041818276532935315,
   "p_ge": 0.054945054945054944,
   "compare": "analysis.skip.within.w_stat",
   "description": "change in skip permuted within year pair; null of w_stat"
  },
  "C2": {
   "n": 300,
   "usable": true,
   "mean": 4.9268915177492637e-05,
   "q95": 0.0001953790804182815,
   "q05": -8.052152807405681e-05,
   "p_ge": 0.9501661129568106,
   "compare": "analysis.cal.d_gain",
   "description": "expertise-1 label permuted within forecaster-year; null of d_gain"
  },
  "C3": {
   "n": 300,
   "usable": true,
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   "p_ge": 0.30564784053156147,
   "compare": "analysis.gate.d_prob_minus_both",
   "description": "expertise permuted within forecaster-year, predictors refitted; null of AURC(prob)-AURC(both)"
  },
  "C4": {
   "n": 300,
   "usable": true,
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   "p_ge": 0.5348837209302325,
   "compare": "analysis.team.skip.abs_diff_skip",
   "description": "team label permuted within year; null of |b_team-b_ind|"
  },
  "C5": {
   "n": 300,
   "usable": true,
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   "q95": 0.0030408388920971073,
   "q05": 0.0001491633960798988,
   "p_ge": 0.11295681063122924,
   "compare": "analysis.team.gate.abs_diff_gate",
   "description": "team label permuted within year; null of |d_team-d_ind|"
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  "C2": 16.720331499993335,
  "C3": 97.71746810001787,
  "C4": 6.47600369999418,
  "C5": 10.726229599997168
 },
 "verdicts": {
  "R1a": {
   "verdict": "PASS",
   "rules": [
    {
     "rule": "analysis.skip.cross.b_first >= 0.05",
     "left": 0.28584329270062236,
     "right": 0.05,
     "holds": true
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    {
     "rule": "analysis.skip.cross.b_first_ci95.0 > 0",
     "left": 0.264409254050997,
     "right": 0,
     "holds": true
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    {
     "rule": "analysis.skip.cross.b_first > controls.C1a.q95",
     "left": 0.28584329270062236,
     "right": 0.017508070258771012,
     "holds": true
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   ]
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  "R1t": {
   "verdict": "PASS",
   "rules": [
    {
     "rule": "analysis.skip.cross.b_first_t >= 0.05",
     "left": 0.19492127437862522,
     "right": 0.05,
     "holds": true
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.skip.cross.b_first_t_ci95.0 > 0",
     "left": 0.1741896019688743,
     "right": 0,
     "holds": true
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.skip.cross.b_first_t > controls.C1t.q95",
     "left": 0.19492127437862522,
     "right": 0.01795179152996555,
     "holds": true
    }
   ]
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  "R1w": {
   "verdict": "FAIL",
   "rules": [
    {
     "rule": "analysis.skip.within.w_stat > 0",
     "left": 0.040539217273652575,
     "right": 0,
     "holds": true
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.skip.within.w_stat_ci95.0 > 0",
     "left": -0.007064738183004559,
     "right": 0,
     "holds": false
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.skip.within.w_stat > controls.C1w.q95",
     "left": 0.040539217273652575,
     "right": 0.04141587378021958,
     "holds": false
    }
   ]
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  "R2cal": {
   "verdict": "PASS",
   "rules": [
    {
     "rule": "analysis.cal.a_low_ci95.0 <= 1",
     "left": 0.79,
     "right": 1,
     "holds": true
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.cal.a_low_ci95.1 >= 1",
     "left": 1.06025,
     "right": 1,
     "holds": true
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.cal.gain_low < 0.002",
     "left": 0.00018445811240701873,
     "right": 0.002,
     "holds": true
    }
   ]
  },
  "R2rel": {
   "verdict": "PASS",
   "rules": [
    {
     "rule": "analysis.cal.d_a_ci95.0 <= 0",
     "left": -0.08999999999999997,
     "right": 0,
     "holds": true
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.cal.d_a_ci95.1 >= 0",
     "left": 0.07999999999999996,
     "right": 0,
     "holds": true
    }
   ]
  },
  "R2b": {
   "verdict": "FAIL",
   "rules": [
    {
     "rule": "analysis.cal.d_gain > 0",
     "left": -8.248622829982338e-05,
     "right": 0,
     "holds": false
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.cal.d_gain_ci95.0 > 0",
     "left": -0.0008628687881035131,
     "right": 0,
     "holds": false
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.cal.d_gain > controls.C2.q95",
     "left": -8.248622829982338e-05,
     "right": 0.0001953790804182815,
     "holds": false
    }
   ]
  },
  "R3self": {
   "verdict": "PASS",
   "rules": [
    {
     "rule": "analysis.gate.self_gain_over_random > 0",
     "left": 0.01813762065875013,
     "right": 0,
     "holds": true
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.gate.self_gain_over_random_ci95.0 > 0",
     "left": 0.009390855064736936,
     "right": 0,
     "holds": true
    }
   ]
  },
  "R3both": {
   "verdict": "FAIL",
   "rules": [
    {
     "rule": "analysis.gate.d_prob_minus_both >= 0.005",
     "left": 0.0025857193733099526,
     "right": 0.005,
     "holds": false
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.gate.d_prob_minus_both_ci95.0 > 0",
     "left": 0.0006742176009234699,
     "right": 0,
     "holds": true
    },
    {
     "rule": "analysis.gate.d_prob_minus_both > controls.C3.q95",
     "left": 0.0025857193733099526,
     "right": 0.0029725891466506407,
     "holds": false
    }
   ]
  },
  "R4skip": {
   "verdict": "FAIL",
   "rules": [
    {
     "rule": "analysis.team.skip.abs_diff_skip > controls.C4.q95",
     "left": 0.013378218137347353,
     "right": 0.043234629862989475,
     "holds": false
    }
   ]
  },
  "R4gate": {
   "verdict": "FAIL",
   "rules": [
    {
     "rule": "analysis.team.gate.abs_diff_gate > controls.C5.q95",
     "left": 0.002517484363674022,
     "right": 0.0030408388920971073,
     "holds": false
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "reproduce": null,
 "status": "scored"
}